The doctor told why coronavirus affects young

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The information comes in the most versatile. For example, it is reported that most Muscovites with coronavirus detected over the past 24 hours are people between the ages of 18 and 40. Today in a day in the city it became known about 212 new infected people (of which 102 – Muscovites aged 18 to 40 years, 58 – people from 40 to 65 years old, 35 – over 65 years old and 17 children), the total number of COVID + reached 1226 . Moreover, as news agencies write with reference to “sources,” almost 40% of patients with coronavirus in Moscow who are on mechanical ventilation are younger than 40 years old. However, if you analyze the information of the chief physicians of city hospitals, which spread the statistics of hospitalized, the picture does not add up. So, the chief doctor of the State Clinical Hospital No. 67 named after Vorokhobova Andrei Skoda reports that today 72 people have been suspected (not yet confirmed) of coronavirus infection in two days. “From our own experience, we are convinced that older people are the most susceptible to the virus, three quarters of our patients are over 65 years old,” said Sergey Sergeevich. – The hardest struggle with the virus occurs in patients with concomitant diseases. However, in most patients we observe a positive trend. But it’s too early to talk about discharge – every patient should be under our supervision for at least 14 days. ”

The head physician of the Kommunark hospital Denis Protsenko said that 348 patients were treated yesterday, of which 175 had pneumonia, COVID – in 193 (with 78 confirmed, and 115 probably). There are 19 people in the intensive care and intensive care units, of which only 5 are on mechanical ventilation, while there are four COVID + of them. Age is not reported. Two patients died (one – 80 years old, the second – with a probable COVID, a woman 69 years old with diabetes). Nevertheless, Dr. Protsenko confirms that in general in the world there is indeed a high proportion of young patients (under 40 years old) on mechanical ventilation, as shown by daily discussions with anesthetists and resuscitators of COVID centers.

Currently, there are 17 patients in intensive care units of City Clinical Hospital No 40, of which 6 are on mechanical ventilation (2 COVID). Sklif’s head physician Sergey Petrikov reports data as of March 29: 51 people received COVID-positives, 6 of them were in intensive care, and 3 were on mechanical ventilation.

According to the chief physician of the State Clinical Hospital №15 named after OM Filatova Valeria Vechorko, 313 people are under treatment, including 198 with nosocomial pneumonias, COVID was confirmed in 77. As of March 29, not a single patient had mechanical ventilation.

“When I analyzed the available statistics, I didn’t see any confirmation of the data that there are so many young patients in the Moscow hospitals on mechanical ventilation,” said MK, an assistant professor of therapy at the First Moscow State Medical University. Sechenova, pulmonologist Alexander Palman. – The media refer to some “sources”, but in different articles completely different percentages are mentioned according to the incidence and age characteristics of severe patients. Some 40% appear everywhere, but I still don’t understand whether they were sick, or seriously ill young, or young on mechanical ventilation … Therefore, the situation is not yet clear to me. If the operational headquarters made more detailed explanations, this would be more correct.

– Maybe they are trying to convince people like this not to leave home?

– Sitting at home now is very good and very correct. But it’s bad when people sit at home not out of common sense, but out of horror. Let’s analyze the official numbers. Now, just over a thousand people across the country have a confirmed diagnosis of COVID. And among them there are not so many people on mechanical ventilation. And even if we assume that 40% of young people are there, then this is not statistics, this is a summary describing the situation on a particular day and nothing more. It will be possible to speak about trends after a few weeks. And even if we assume that such a trend has been outlined, I have two explanations for this trend. First: through the efforts of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and transport companies, Russians gathered there from abroad were taken away. And often these are young people who either worked there or relaxed, and they naturally brought along a portion of the virus. Therefore, in the next week or two there will be some surge in the incidence rate among mainly young people due to those who have arrived.

The second – our pensioners are not as socially active as the same Italians who sit in cafes and chat in the morning. There, national traditions imply close communication, so, naturally, the percentage of elderly patients there is higher, and they are potentially more ill and have more risks. Well, you also need to keep in mind that severe patients do not necessarily need respiratory support, that is, treatment with mechanical ventilation is not the only criterion for the severity of the condition. So if now a large number of patients with COVID are young in hospitals, this is absolutely logical, and due to our demographic and social situation, the peak incidence rate among the elderly may be slightly less.

– Is there any hope that the Italian scenario will not repeat here?

– I think yes. So far, everything is developing according to a more prosperous Asian scenario. But why is mortality so low for us so far, I do not find the final rational explanation. You can, of course, explain this with anything: strong centralized authority, timely quarantine, barrage barriers … But this is all about the number of infected people. And if we had an Italian scenario, there would have been dozens of deaths. In the same way, it is not clear to me why in Germany, where medicine is not very different from Spanish, Italian, French, such a low mortality rate. And the United States is not coping.

– So, maybe, after all, everything went quietly with us? In Moscow, however, not so hot was recorded, but an increase of 37% in pneumonia in January (compared with January last year)?

– The Italians also say that they had a surge of pneumonia in December and January. Of course, certain cases could have gone unnoticed in our country, but if a surge of severe pneumonia with fatal outcomes began in Moscow, it would have been impossible to hide. This year is generally anarchy with the climate, no winter, so the seasonality of respiratory infections is different. What to attribute the surge in the number of pneumonia to coronavirus infection or to coincidence is another question. One could answer it if one had the answer to the question: was there a significant increase in mortality? If not, then it is almost certainly a climatic bend. This is like a “scientific” study about the reliable relationship between summer diarrhea and white trousers: in summer there is more diarrhea and more often they wear white, but it can be concluded that wearing white is dangerous in summer. Therefore, you can not pull out individual numbers.

According to the chief infectious disease specialist of the Central Administrative District, Ilya Akinfeev, now more than 100 patients with COVID + are receiving outpatient treatment at home: “Thanks to the work of the internal affairs department and the Safe City system with face recognition, we regularly detect quarantine violations and conduct preventive interviews.”

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