Erol Taymaz *
As the number of deaths and cases increases, the rate of increase (see below) will tend to decrease, so the total death / total case ratio will converge to a certain rate. On the day when there are no new cases and deaths, this rate will show how many percent of people in the country in question died.
This number is from country to country; Differences in the compilation of data on cases and deaths ** may vary depending on factors such as measures taken, conditions of care and age composition of countries.
In the figures below you can see the growth rates for 10-day periods. In the horizontal axis, 0 is taken as the day of the 100th case.
10th day data, [1-10] 11th day data on [2-11] days,…, 30th day data [21-30] shows the average daily increase rate in days. So we have a 10-day window, we find the average daily increase rate for this window and shift the window for 1 day.
Note: Data are in the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC)
withdraws from the website . ECDC compiles data from 06:00 to 10:00 (CET) every day and publishes it on the website at 13:00. Turkey is the most recent data from the Ministry of Health website.
In the figures, day 0 is defined as the first day when the total number of cases exceeds 100. The last day of the country data is the data of the day the data was updated.
* Science Academy member – METU Department of Economics faculty member (This article was published on 02.05.2020 at sarkac.org)
*** For example, England usually tests those who have been hospitalized; this increases the total death / total Case rate.