The design office for mathematical modeling of Ufa Aviation University and Bashkir Medical University has developed a model for the spread of coronavirus in Russia. The analysis company Megaputer Intelligence also presented its analysis. The models suggest that the peak of COVID-19 distribution in Russia and Moscow has already been passed.
Specialists of Bashkir universities are sure that the peak occurred on May 8–9. The daily increase then amounted to 10.5 thousand cases. Project Office Manager Irina Luckman said RBCthat in the regions there are general patterns of the development of the epidemic: at first, growth remains smooth, then outbreaks occur in crowded places, after which development goes into an exponential phase, and in mid-May the incidence reaches a peak. The accuracy of the model is estimated at 96–97%, the forecast horizon is 7–10 days.
Megaputer Intelligence claims that according to a realistic forecast, Moscow passed the peak on May 6, and the Moscow region on May 12. According to a pessimistic forecast, the peak will occur on May 26 in Moscow, when 6.2 thousand patients can be registered, RBC reports.
The previously presented Sberbank coronavirus incidence model suggests that the peak of the COVID-19 epidemic in Russia occurred 16th of May.
In Russia, 282 thousand infected with coronavirus were registered. 2.6 thousand people died. From May 3 to May 13, from 10 thousand to 11.7 thousand cases of infections were recorded in the country. More than 10 thousand were also registered on May 15. The increase over the last day amounted to 9.7 thousand.
On the results of the fight against coronavirus in the regions – in the material “b” “Discoveries just around the corner.”