Wrong description of Covid-19 as a “wave”


We have no previous experience with a global pandemic as widespread and persistent as that of the coronavirus, so when Sars-CoV-2, or the virus that causes Covid-19, began to spread, public health experts – in order to formulate their predictions- were based on their experiences up to that time with pandemics as a result of the flu.

These pandemics are often described as “waves” or “troughs”. But now, as some claim, we have seen enough to replace the word “wave” with a better…: fire.

Just like a fire, the virus is constantly searching for “fuel” (human hosts), destroying some areas while saving others.

It will continue to spread until we achieve sufficient immunity in the herd – when 50 to 70% of the population has developed protective antibodies – to significantly slow the transmission of the disease. We will achieve this even more effectively through an effective and widely available vaccine, which is still being sought by scientists.

We now have convincing evidence that Sars-CoV-2 is not affected by the weather but is spread by human contact and proximity occurring in areas with a high population density.

Studies of previous pandemics, wars and other historical periods of intense national stress show that people react more calmly and effectively when their leadership tells them the truth, even if that truth is frightening.

We know that universal or partial “lockdown” causes huge economic and social negative consequences and that there are no easy answers. Now, however, we can be sure of one thing: the cost of inaction will far exceed the cost of our second chance if we do not do so. And we may not have the luxury of a third.

naftemporiki.gr with information from The Guardian


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